Okay, I am going to try to
explain some of the complexities of the war(s) in Iraq. There are so many an
intricacy in this situation that it barely makes sense much less even seems
possible - So I’ll try anyway!! I am going to try to make a little sense of it,
or at least expose the unsettling complexity and nearly impossible positive outcome
of any involvement there.
Before I start I think it is
important for me to confess that I was one of those who thought our involvement
in Iraq was a bad idea when we invaded in 2003. Not because I thought the
situation with Saddam Hussein didn’t warrant some sort of action, but because I
knew that there would be no easy answer to the question of what’s next once
Hussein was removed as leader of Iraq, and I was concerned for the number of
veterans who would be returning from that conflict with lifelong disabilities –
Mental and Physical.
When you look at the Middle East
you must understand that while these countries have ancient names, they are not
of ancient geographical origin. The countries that are found in the Middle East
were drawn up following the defeat of the Ottoman Empire in the First World War.
Unfortunately, these borders were based on geographical boundaries and not
along the true ethnic homelands of the peoples involved. They were based on
borders that would benefit the victorious nations of Europe as they began to
rule these nations as colonies or as puppet regimes.
Since we are discussing Iraq we
can start there. Iraq includes three specific cultural groups; the Kurds to the
north, the Sunnis in the middle, and the Shiites in the south. What is the
difference between Sunni Islam and Shia Islam? Well about 1300 years ago or so
these two factions disagreed over who should be Muhammad’s successor and they
still haven’t worked it out. That may be a little simplistic, but it’s all we
have time to talk about here as this blog is already going to be way too long.
Now comes the tricky part.
The Kurds actually inhabit a
loosely defined area known as Kurdistan that falls into portions of Iraq,
Turkey, Iran, Armenia, and Syria. They have their own language and culture but
unlike many elsewhere in the Middle East, there is not one specific religion
considered Kurdish. While most are a Muslim base, many are Christian as well as
other religions including Judaism. These folks live in the northern portion of
Iraq and make up about 20-25% of the Iraqi Population.
The Shia Muslims are the minority
portion of the Islamic world, but they make up approximately 60% of the Iraqi populace
and reside mostly in the southern portions of the country. The Sunni Muslims
make up the majority of the world’s Muslim population, second only to
Christianity in numbers; however, in Iraq they only constitute 15-20% of the
population and live in the mid-regions of the country. Even though the Sunnis
are the minority in Iraq, until the 2003 invasion they had been the ruling sect
of since Iraq has been independent. To do this they used brutal coercion and
intimidation to reign over the Kurds and Shiites.
Many folks have questioned the
reasons that we did not go after Saddam Hussein following the Gulf War in 1991.
Simply put, the allies needed the use of staging points and bases in Saudi
Arabia and the Saudis would not go along with Desert Storm had Hussein been
removed. The Saudis were concerned that the removal of Hussein might come with
the installation of a Shiite regime which in turn might invite the Shiite-led Iranians
into Iraq and the Saudis wanted a Sunni buffer between them and Iran.
A decade later, following the
2003 invasion and the subsequent overthrow of the Hussein regime, the power
vacuum in Iraq became apparent and the cultural rifts and ancient divisions
between the long ruling Sunnis and the Shiites came painfully to the surface.
With the 2011 pullout of US and
allied troops in Iraq, a huge leadership void emerged and was all too quickly filled
with the influence of the Iranian government. Then, following the subsequent
Arab Spring and the Civil War in Syria, the real complexities of the Middle
East have now come in to play and the current administration has absolutely no
clue how to deal with it. Then again, neither have any of the previous
administrations since the colonial influences began to fail in the Middle East.
In the last few weeks, news of a
Sunni faction called ISIS or ISIL has come to light in the press with news of
their control over cities like Mosul and Tikrit; cities where many US troops
gave their lives to secure. These ISIS extremists also have ties to Al Qaeda which
is bad; however, they are also part of the rebels that are fighting the Shia government
of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad – our enemy. But how can the enemies of our
allies, the Iraqi government be the same people fighting a Syrian government seen
as our “Enemy,” AND be a part of the Al Qaeda the President swore was decimated
while he ran for office in 2012 – DOWN RIGHT PUZZLING?
But now it gets even more
complex. The ISIS uprising in Iraq has been around since last year and briefed
as far back as August of 2013 by US Intelligence Sources. So now the President has
ordered 300 Special Forces troops into Iraq to train up the Iraqi army;
however, he has refused them air support. But that’s fine as that bit of assistance
is being picked up by Syrian Air Force and Iranian drones - BRILLIANT.
Then this week the President announces
that he wants to give $500 million to the Syrian rebels (mostly Sunni) to help
fight Assad’s forces. Rebels that include the same ISIS troops who are working to
fight the Iraqi army he is sending 300 troops to train. Seems rather
counterproductive doesn’t it?
Don’t worry, the President says
they will vet these rebels - but how? Are they going to be carrying an ID card
to show what part of the rebel army they are in? Nah….we’ll just take their
word for it. After all, that’s how their buddies in Iraq got the US equipment
that we left for the Iraqi Army!
Let us not forget the Kurds in
the north, they wished for autonomy in 1991 but were refused as the only way to
get Turkish assistance in enforcing the no-fly zone over Iraq during the 1990s
was to ensure that there would be no Kurdish independence. Now the Kurds have a
chance to be free and possibly have a country of their own. They have been
relatively silent and have gone into self-preservation mode as far as this
current round of fighting has gone.
In summary, what is completely
lost on the last few administrations is that fighting in the Middle East is not
just about the geographical entities involved, but also about cultural,
religious, and regional entities that might or might not be diametrically
opposed in any given country, AND how these entities of all shapes and sizes
might or might not be colluding with each other regardless of whether they are
a nation, a culture, or a military sect. Confusing isn’t it?
In short, we are trying to help
the rebels that are opposed to the Syrian government; the same rebels who are
part of Al Qaeda and fighting the Iraqi government we are also supporting; the
same Iraqi government who is allied with the Syrian and Iranian governments we oppose
and have sanctions against. AND we’ll train the Syrian rebels in Jordan so that
Jordan can get involved and become unstable like the rest of the area.
I hope this has removed your
confusion on being baffled by the mysterious entanglements of the complex
intricacies of this region of the world. The one thing I take from it all is that
since there is no way to know who is helping who and who is actually opposing
who, then there is no reason to try and make any long term plans in this
region. The Middle-East is a region of conflicting political, religious, and ideological
beliefs inhabited by a majority of folks who are divided based on overlapping geographical
methods who will take up arms to settle almost any disagreement. There are some
sophisticated peoples in the region, but overall they do not have enough
authority, nor do they have adequate support, to exert Westernlike-Civilized
control.
There!! That was pretty simple…right?
Bill
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